While I Was Writing Today’s Signal // Noise:

🎧 Want the whole vibe? The running playlist is right here.

From sound to signal, let’s get this baby rolling with what’s on my mind…

One big idea, insight, or take - grounded in the real work, not theory.

Google searches for “AI bubble” have exploded 100x in the last few months, from basically zero to “everyone at the bar suddenly has an opinion.”

And yet, if you listen closely, nobody’s actually asking the same thing.

When someone says “AI bubble,” they might mean one of three completely different things:

Let’s hit all three.

By any normal or traditional measure, markets are frothy AF.

The S&P 500’s forward P/E sits around 23–24× — a level it’s only hit a handful of times in the last 30 years. The last time we saw this kind of multiple was in 1998 and early 2021, both euphoric stretches that took a year or two before gravity finally kicked in.

But here’s the distinction people miss: a true bubble means prices are totally detached from reality. It’s when assets rise far above their fundamental value, driven by hype and investor psychology — think tulips, Pets.com, or housing in 2008 — and then collapse when the illusion breaks.

But that’s not what’s happening here. The current run-up isn’t purely speculative. It’s built on an actual underlying tech that’s already driving productivity, revenue, and profit across multiple sectors. The market might be overextended, but that’s not the same as flat-out delusional.

And yes, there’s a lot of froth in venture as I’m sure too many AI startups are raising money on vaporware or wild growth assumptions… but that’s the normal rhythm of innovation cycles. Most of these companies will go to zero; and a few will change the world. That’s not a bubble; that’s just the nature of venture.

Verdict: Markets are high on AI fumes, but history says “high” doesn’t automatically mean “done.”

If “AI bubble” means the technology is smoke and mirrors, then no way, because that one’s already burst the other way. Bill Gates calls AI “as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor or the internet.” Sundar Pichai says it’s “more profound than fire or electricity.”

But fancy quotes aside, it’s the adoption data that backs them up: ChatGPT hit 100 million monthly users faster than any product in history — faster than TikTok, Instagram, you name it.

Under the hood, AI isn’t just generating haikus. It’s:

So yeah, there’s def hype, but the underlying toolset is legitimately powerful.

Verdict: Not an “AI-tech” bubble. It’s one of the few hype cycles that feels absolutely real.

You may have seen this viral chart below showing the stock market up up up, job openings down, and and a big fat vertical line where GPT was released in Nov. 2022.

But here’s the real story:

If AI were truly killing jobs right now, the tech sector would most likely be bleeding first. But instead, the pain’s in the old-school cyclical industries that typically see-saw up & down over time.

Now, that doesn’t mean AI won’t reshape work and reduce jobs in services & tech, I’m almost certain it will. But I do think today’s cooling job market is more about monetary policy than it is about machine learning.

Verdict: The “AI is killing jobs” story is more of a worry for the future than a current reality, IMO.

So, are we in an AI bubble?

The smarter question isn’t “Is it a bubble?” It’s “Which bubble am I looking at?”

History says bubbles always pop, but sometimes, they leave behind the infrastructure for the next revolution. AI looks a lot like one of those times.

Smart reads, sharp tools, or internet gems.

Loved this take on the many ways we can eff up a job search before even starting. One thing in particular I found useful from my man Guarav is to focus on MOCs (missions, outcomes, competencies) before you even think about writing a JD. Stops you from writing fantasy résumés and makes you clarify the outcome you actually need. Check it out here.

Book rec roundup from the a16z crew including a mix of obvious classics and a few randos I hadn’t seen before. Good reminder that most ideas in business and tech have been written about already; you just have to go read them. Check it out here.

Guest poster Justin Mares put together a founder-friendly longevity checklist covering sleep, nutrition, clothing, toxins, & daily habits. It’s part tactical, part biohacker weirdness, everything from air purifiers to organ supplements. Check it out here.

What about you, has AI actually changed how you work, or still feels more hype than help?

Thanks for reading — and have a great weekend.

Jordan

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